3D printing is rapidly evolving. Recently Bloomberg's Betty Liu noted that 3D printing industry is projected to be worth a staggering $3 billion by 2016. And Goldman Sachs describes 3D printing as creative destroyer that 3D printing has the potential to offer high degrees of customization, reduced costs for complex designs, and lower overhead costs for short-run parts and products. Goldman notes that currently the 3D printing industry is a $2.2 billion market, and its revenues will reach $10.8 billion by 2021.
On Tuesday Credit Suisse initiated coverage on three different 3D printing stocks and expressed bullish research notes about the 3D printing market. The firm's preferred pick is 3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) which was started with an Outperform rating and $62.00 price target. ExOne Co. (NASDAQ: XONE) was given the "rotten apple" ranking of the lot. This 3D printing outfit was started as Underperform with a $48 target price.
while the least preferred of the 3D printing stocks is The ExOne Co. (NASDAQ: XONE). On ExOne, Julian Mitchell said, "We see three key downside risks to consensus sales growth assumptions: (1) uptake of the core technology is liable to be constrained by lack of CAD penetration in Asia (where XONE has higher exposure than peers); (2) there is a need for significant post processing in metals (unlike competing technologies); (3) revenues are highly cyclical, given full exposure to industrial markets and minimal materials 'tail' following a system sale."
The report from analyst Julian Mitchell said, "Our proprietary 3D penetration analysis suggests consensus sales growth forecasts could prove conservative. Most corporate guidance defaults to the assumptions of industry consultants who estimate that the 3D printing market will grow at approximately 20% annually."
"We challenge this assumption and attempt to quantify the addressable market by investigating the opportunities within key verticals such as aerospace, automotive, healthcare, and consumer. We conclude that these four markets alone (which comprise ~ 50% of the AM market today) represent sufficient opportunity to sustain 20-30% annual revenue growth, bolstered by the technology's transition from prototyping to end use parts and expansion into metals."
Credit Suisse sees a 30% compound annual growth rate each for 3D printing's expansion into aerospace and health care. But the most rapid expansion of 3D printing will come from personal use, notes the team.
"The consumer market is the fastest-growing portion of the 3D printing market, with expectations for 100%+ YoY growth in 2013. Makerbot [owned by Stratasys] describes its offering as intended for the 'pro-sumer' market (manufacturer's suggested retail price is $2,200-2,800), expecting many systems to be dual professional / personal use among small business owners or serious hobbyists. 3D Systems' 'Cube' (MSRP $1,200+) is marketed by DDD as a true 'consumer' printer."
Source: Business Insider
Posted in 3D Printing Technology
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Scott Dunham wrote at 9/20/2013 3:06:36 PM:
So let me get this straight - industry analysts (like myself) are underestimating market growth, but their estimate in the graph above predicts the 'primary' global AM market to be under $12 billion in size in 2020?